Fundamentals
Value Betting: How to Find Positive EV (+EV) Bets
Value betting explained: what +EV means, how to calculate a bet's expected value, where fair odds come from, line shopping, CLV and realistic results.
· 13 min read
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Learn sharp sports betting
Plain-English guides to the math sharp bettors use every day: find +EV bets, remove the vig, size your stakes and measure whether your bets beat the closing line. Every number is worked through with NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL examples.
Start here: the +EV learning path
The fundamentals
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Strategy
Arbitrage Betting: Stake Math, Examples and Real Risks
Arbitrage betting explained: how to spot a sports arb, calculate stakes for an equal payout, 2-way and 3-way examples, whether it's legal, and the real risks.
· 10 min read
Fundamentals
How to Devig Odds: Vig, Hold and the 4 Devig Methods
What vig, overround and hold mean, how to devig odds into fair no-vig probabilities, and how the multiplicative, additive, power and Shin methods compare.
· 11 min read
Strategy
Parlay EV: Are Parlays Worth It? The Math Explained
Parlay expected value explained: how EV and vig compound across legs, why most parlays lose, what correlation does to same game parlays, and when one pays.
· 12 min read
Strategy
Profit Boost Strategy: Which Bets to Boost and Why
Profit boost strategy: how to value odds boosts and profit boosts with fair odds, why +150 to +400 bets usually gain the most, and how max-win caps change it.
· 10 min read
Bankroll
Kelly Criterion in Sports Betting: Formula and Examples
The Kelly criterion sizes bets for maximum long-run bankroll growth. The formula with NFL, NHL and MLB examples, its history, and why bettors use ½ or ¼ Kelly.
· 11 min read
Fundamentals
Implied Probability in Betting: Formula and Examples
How to calculate implied probability from American and decimal odds, why it includes the vig, what break-even win rate a price needs, and how sharps use it.
· 11 min read
Bankroll
Sports Betting Bankroll Management: Flat vs Kelly
Sports betting bankroll management: how big a unit should be, and flat betting vs full, half and quarter Kelly, simulated across 10,000 bettors and 1,000 bets.
· 11 min read
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